上一篇計算得出的結論第二條非常反直覺!我覺得不對勁,所以將通脹率和LPR的變化關係進行了變化:
我假設通脹率=k/LPR,
其中設定k=通脹率初值*LPR初值
以上規定的理由是:通脹率和LPR成反相關,反相關係數爲k
以下是中國指數,來源https://www.ceicdata.com/zh-hans/country/china
通過圖中展示的曲線,我得出的結論是,通脹是在大多數時候發生的大概率事件,銀行貸款利率一直在下調,消費者價格指數也大多數時候爲正值,以人民幣購買力計算的通脹在大放水的情況下,一定是遠超貸款利率水平的。
代碼如下:
https://github.com/yangh2333/-House-property-/blob/master/CalculateHousingLoan
由以上公式,對上篇狀況第二次仿真結果如下:
結論:
默認條件:通脹率 > LPR
1、依然是等額本息比等額本金划算
2、LPR下行,通脹率上行,最划算
3、月供的折現值,在LPR下行時還款壓力在10年後變得十分輕鬆。但LPR上行,10000月供在最後變成4000,負擔下降,但降幅不大,維持和社會基本工資相當。
本金 | 還款方式 | LPR月利率/通脹率 | 月供 | 總還款 |
總折現款(按LPR通脹) |
總折現款(按通脹率初值=2*LPR初值) | 總折現款(按通脹率初值=4*LPR初值) |
200萬 | 等額本息 | 不變4.75% | 10432 | 3755860 | 2000000 | 1240755 | 656617 |
降低4.75%勻降到0.5% | 10432~7958 | 3172902 | 1461178 | 937689 | 549193 | ||
升高4.75%勻升到8% | 10432~12655 | 4257985 | 2417233 | 1514984 | 766762 | ||
等額本金 | 不變4.75% | 13472~5577 | 3428958 | 2000000 | 1330351 | 762237 | |
降低4.75%勻降到0.5% | 13472~5558 | 3026684 | 1562304 | 1060457 | 652957 | ||
升高4.75%勻升到8% | 13472~5592 | 3736579 | 2303355 | 1549892 | 864233 |
+++++++++++等額本息+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通脹率=初始LPR++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is 3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000116
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is 3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 1461178.4334697158
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is 4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 2417233.1574840792
-------------end------------------------
+++++++++++等額本息+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通脹率=初始LPR*2++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is 3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 1240755.7268539048
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is 3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 937689.2259473074
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is 4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 1514984.474345467
-------------end------------------------
+++++++++++等額本息+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通脹率=初始LPR*4++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is 3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 656617.5359742445
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is 3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 549193.8775695525
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is 4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 766762.211863819
-------------end------------------------
+++++++++++等額本金+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通脹率=初始LPR++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is 3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000165
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is 3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 1562304.569583039
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is 3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 2303355.0064343777
-------------end------------------------
+++++++++++等額本金+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通脹率=初始LPR*2++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is 3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 1330351.8914530918
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is 3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 1060457.4485369534
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is 3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 1549892.549813679
-------------end------------------------
+++++++++++等額本金+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通脹率=初始LPR*4++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is 3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 762237.1675692783
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is 3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 652957.3554340274
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is 3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 864233.661418452
-------------end------------------------