App Annie發佈預測：TikTok 將達 15 億活躍用戶，遙遙領先 Instagram

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"近日， 移動數據和分析公司 App Annie 在其官網發佈了 2022 年移動市場趨勢報告。報告回顧了過去兩年全球經濟發生了轉變，並對 2022 年全球移動領域發展做出預測。"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#212223","name":"user"}}],"text":"本次 App Annie "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.appannie.com\/en\/insights\/market-data\/6-mobile-forecasts-to-help-you-succeed-in-2022\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"發佈"}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#212223","name":"user"}}],"text":"的2022 年移動市場趨勢報告共有六大趨勢："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"TikTok"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" 將達到 15 億活躍用戶；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"Pinterest 和 Temple Run 2 的下載量將達到 10 億次，Subway Surfers 將達到 20 億次，TikTok 將達到 30 億次；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"元宇宙應用程序（如Roblox、Minecraft）的消費者支出將超過 31 億美元；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"Z 世代移動優先的金融科技應用程序將在 2022 年增長 160%；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在視頻流訂閱的推動下，娛樂應用的購買收入將達到 120 億美元；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"社交應用程序在 App Store 的支出將達到 90 億美元，比 2020 年增長 82%。"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"TikTok 增長勢頭不減"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"儘管來自競爭對手平臺的持續挑戰以及某些地區的限制，TikTok 仍在不斷髮展壯大。根據App Annie的最新數據，該應用的增長勢頭不會很快放緩。"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#191919","name":"user"}}],"text":"對此，App Annie 分析師解釋說：“與社交媒體競爭對手相比，TikTok 在 2021 年的增長速度很快，即使它在 2020 年 6 月被增長速度比較大的印度市場禁止。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/uploader.shimo.im\/f\/JmgE4Etxhr1tyYWs.png!thumbnail?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsImtpZCI6ImRlZmF1bHQiLCJ0eXAiOiJKV1QifQ.eyJhdWQiOiJhY2Nlc3NfcmVzb3VyY2UiLCJleHAiOjE2MzczMjI3NjYsImciOiJkSGd0WUpLVGpLeHh0cmp4IiwiaWF0IjoxNjM3MzIyNDY2LCJ1c2VySWQiOjcwMDUxODA5fQ.SlFPQKzBBTnZIZVFp5kA0EfaDS4ojEPp5Pxu4eKm5AY","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"100%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"根據預測，TikTok 將在未來 12 個月達到 15 億活躍用戶，這將遠遠領先於 Instagram 目前"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.socialmediatoday.com\/news\/instagram-now-has-a-billion-monthly-active-users\/526188\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"擁有的"}]},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.socialmediatoday.com\/news\/instagram-now-has-a-billion-monthly-active-users\/526188\/","title":null,"type":null}},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.socialmediatoday.com\/news\/instagram-now-has-a-billion-monthly-active-users\/526188\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"10 億"}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"活躍用戶。爲什麼TikTok 在社交媒體市場中能取得如此強勁的表現？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"這很大程度上要歸功於算法以及內容方面的優勢。TikTok高管曾披露了其"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"算法的工作原理"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"TikTok的算法使用機器學習來確定用戶最有可能參與的內容，併爲他們提供更多內容，方法是找到相似的視頻，或者有相似用戶偏好的人喜歡的視頻。當用戶首次打開TikTok時，他們會看到8個熱門視頻，內容包括不同的趨勢、音樂和主題。在此之後，算法將繼續根據用戶觀看或參與的視頻以及用戶在做的事情，爲用戶提供8個更新的視頻。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"該算法根據視頻信息(可能包括字幕、標籤或聲音等細節)識別與用戶觀看的視頻相似的視頻。它還考慮到用戶設備和帳戶設置，其中包括語言首選項、國家\/地區設置和設備類型等數據。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"當TikTok收集了足夠多的用戶數據，該應用就能夠根據相似用戶的喜好來繪製用戶的偏好，並將他們分組到“集羣”中。同時，它還根據類似的主題將視頻分組。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"使用機器學習，TikTok的算法可以根據用戶與其他用戶集羣、他們所喜歡內容的接近程度向用戶提供視頻。TikTok的邏輯旨在避免可能會讓用戶感到厭煩的冗餘內容，比如看到具有相同音樂的多個視頻或來自同一創建者的多個視頻。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"同時在"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"內容方面"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"，"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"TikTok提倡人們分享生活，建立健康的社區交流，包括節約用水，母愛等宣傳視頻。很多美英主流新聞媒體陸續進駐TikTok，也證明TikTok文化和內容逐漸被肯定。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"遊戲行業成爲元宇宙流量入口"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.appannie.com\/cn","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"App Annie"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":" 還預測，到 2022 年，消費者將花費超過 31 億美元購買所謂的元宇宙遊戲應用程序。“一般來說，元宇宙應用程序是沉浸式環境，您可以在其中共同創造自己的世界並與朋友以社交方式互動，”該公司表示。同時報告稱，在新的沉浸式遊戲領域，移動設備扮演着“關鍵因素”的角色。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/uploader.shimo.im\/f\/lhWmxvDduaV2ENHk.png!thumbnail?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsImtpZCI6ImRlZmF1bHQiLCJ0eXAiOiJKV1QifQ.eyJhdWQiOiJhY2Nlc3NfcmVzb3VyY2UiLCJleHAiOjE2MzczMjI3NjYsImciOiJkSGd0WUpLVGpLeHh0cmp4IiwiaWF0IjoxNjM3MzIyNDY2LCJ1c2VySWQiOjcwMDUxODA5fQ.SlFPQKzBBTnZIZVFp5kA0EfaDS4ojEPp5Pxu4eKm5AY","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"100%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"近期，元宇宙成爲科技圈和資本圈大熱的話題。國外"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/checkpoint\/828281030927956\/?next=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2F20531316728","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Facebook"}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#0a0a0a","name":"user"}}],"text":"宣佈Facebook平臺的品牌將部分更名爲Meta（意爲“元”），"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"微軟在Ignite大會上宣佈，計劃將旗下聊天和會議應用Microsoft Teams打造成元宇宙，把混合現實會議平臺Microsoft Mesh融入Microsoft Teams中，國內騰訊、字節跳動等也紛紛進入相關領域。多數人認爲，元宇宙作爲虛擬世界和現實世界融合的載體，蘊含社交、內容、遊戲、辦公等場景變革的巨大機遇。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"元宇宙被視爲互聯網的下一個階段，而遊戲被普遍認爲是元宇宙的最初入口，其給予玩家虛擬身份，且玩家可依託該身份在遊戲內進行社交。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"事實上，元宇宙並不是新生事物，那麼爲何在今年爆發？從短期來看是受疫情的觸發，在“後疫情”時代，人們在現實世界中自由出行受到一些限制，這一定程度上激發遠程交互技術和產品的發展，以幫助人們跨越物理的限制；從長期來看，是互聯網發展的一個必然趨勢，在過去幾十年間，互聯網、移動互聯網和高科技的快速發展，形成了“元宇宙”發展的土壤。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"元宇宙的概念火了，資本快速湧向了遊戲股。然而，元宇宙建立在交互設備迭代、更高算力基礎上，顯然離成熟應用還有一定距離，多數公司在該領域尚處於初步探索階段，相關業務模式發展也存在較大的不確定性。因此，在關注元宇宙發展的同時也要深刻理解風險和泡沫的存在。"}]}]}