China's latest evidence of sputtering growth underlines a dilemma for its incoming leaders: They can shore up the economy by doubling down on an exhausted growth model, or take a risky political bet on reforms that could worsen the slowdown in the short term.
sputtering：濺射，噴射 dilemma：困境，進退兩難 shore up：支持，支撐，加固
doubling down：加倍下注
The challenge─an unusual one for a Communist government─is to put more money in the pockets of its consumers by tackling the burgeoning inequality in income, which has contributed to pushing China's growth off kilter.
burgeoning：增長迅速的，生機勃勃的 kilter：平衡，順利，良好狀態
The 7.4% year-on-year rise in China's gross domestic product in the third quarter, reported Thursday, was the weakest growth rate since the start of 2009 and the seventh straight quarter of decline. Nevertheless, those hoping for a 'soft landing' in China,
ever-more important for the health of the global economy, took heart from some signs of stabilization. Industrial output, exports and investment all crept up in September. Employment has also stayed strong.
crept up：爬升
That raises the question for Beijing of whether to use its usual levers to pump up the economy, or to try to put China on a sustainable growth path by focusing more on spending by domestic households and less on investment and exports.
pump up：熱切期望，打氣
The traditional methods of kick-starting growth─cutting interest rates and boosting investment─would risk exacerbating economic imbalances, increasing investment returns at the expense of salaries and spending money for households.
exacerbate：惡化
Spreading the gains from China's growth means challenging some of the most powerful groups in the country's body politic: local officials who benefit when their governments flip land bought on the cheap from farmers, and state-owned enterprises whose
low taxes translate into less money for welfare programs. The winners in such a gamble would be China's lower and middle-income households, which are increasingly looked to as the source of future growth.
gamble：賭博，冒險
Revamping the state-owned sector so the firms operate in a more commercial fashion could cost as many as four million jobs as the companies slim down and shed political tasks and subsidies, said Minxin Pei, a China expert at Claremont McKenna College.
'It wouldn't be privatization; it would be departyization,' Mr. Pei said.
Revamp：改進，修補，翻新 slim down：消瘦 shed：流出，脫落，散佈，擺脫
subsidy：補助，津貼
Incomes have risen across China in the past decade, but political elites have benefited disproportionately from a system that massively enriches those closest to the center of power.
disproportionately：不成比例地
The problem is that what is good for the elites is no longer good for China: Deepening inequality now stands in the way of a long-stated goal of shifting China's growth model so that it depends more heavily on domestic consumption.
'To get really big [reform], you have to go for a redistribution of income,' said International Monetary Fund chief economist Olivier Blanchard.
According to a new national survey of China's household income, China's richest 10% control 56.9% of household income and 84.6% of household wealth─'a level of inequality seen only in some struggling African nations,' said Gan Li, a professor at Texas
A&M University who led the survey.
The deepening inequality also makes it tougher to safeguard against the fate of other one-time economic stars that failed to advance to the ranks of wealthy nations.
safeguard against：防範，預防
Brazil's boom economy stagnated in 1980s and 1990s, for instance, as the country cleaved further into haves and have-nots, a pattern that some fear could be repeated in China. 'There's a race in China between economic disparity and the rise of the middle
class,' says Cheng Li, a Brookings Institution senior fellow.
stagnate：停滯，淤塞 cleaved：裂開 disparity：不同，不一致，不等
Bolstering low- and middle-income households is important economically because these people spend a higher share of their income than rich households. The savings rate for China's top 10% of urban households is 38%, compared with 27% for middle-income
households and 8% for the bottom 10%.
Bolstering：支撐，鼓勵，增強
Gao Jing, a 39-year-old migrant to Beijing, says she feels stuck. Ms. Gao runs a tiny store and earns about 2,500 to 3,000 yuan a month ($400 to $475), just enough to support her two children, she says. 'Poor people like us find it hard to earn money,
no matter how hard we work.' Returning to her home province of Henan isn't an option, she says, because economic prospects are poor and the schools are bad.
Concern about inequality is becoming increasingly commonplace in China. According to a 2012 Pew Research Center poll of 3,177 Chinese, 48% say the gap between rich and poor is a very big problem, up from 41% in 2008.
Addressing inequality would require measures including protecting farmers' land rights to give them a valuable asset to sell or develop; granting migrant workers urban residency; and cracking down on corruption that enriches China's elites. All would
require taking on powerful vested interests.
crack down：鎮壓，取締 vested：既定的，法律規定的
The current administration has long promised stronger land rights for China's farmers. Local political chiefs and real-estate firms, however, are both enriched by sales of land that local governments buy cheaply from farmers.
real-estate：不動產的
Farmers receive compensation of $17,850 per acre, on average, for land seized by local authorities, just 2.4% of the $740,000 per acre market value, according to a 2011 survey of 1,791 farmers conducted by Landesa Rural Development Institute.
China's 168 million migrant workers help build, clean and serve the cities, but few have the opportunity to make permanent homes there. That is because of the rigid urban-residency system that denies migrant workers and their families access to health
care, education and welfare benefits in towns, whose governments see migrants as a source of cheap labor rather than members of the urban population.
rigid：嚴格的，僵硬的，死板的
Reducing income inequality would also require action to tamp down on corruption. A state-dominated economy, where officials control access to valuable assets, provides ample opportunities for graft.
tamp down：將...壓下 ample：豐富的，足夠的，寬敞的 graft：貪污，瀆職
Transparency International ranks China as the 75th most-corrupt country in the world, slightly above Colombia. A 2008 study by Wang Xiaolu of the China Reform Foundation found that China's richest 10% of urban households had average annual per capita
disposable income of 139,000 yuan, three times higher than the official data suggest. The 'gray income' that accounts for much of the difference often has its origins in the misuse of power and is closely connected with corruption, Mr. Wang wrote.
per capita disposable income：人均可支配收入
Some analysts criticized Mr. Wang's survey, saying it used an unrepresentative sample.
The Chinese Internet site Baidu has created an online forum devoted to the issue of income inequality. 'The higher hope you have, the more disappointed you will get,' read one recent posting. 'The wealth gap is getting bigger, with the rich people buying
fancy cars and houses while the poor people can't even afford the rent. That is the reality of China now.'
President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, set to step down at the 18th Party Congress in November, promised a more 'harmonious' society. But policies that juiced returns to investment and kept wages low also kept the income gap wide. The share of consumption
in China's GDP fell to 34% in 2011, from 44% in 2002.
step down：辭職，走下，逐步減低
Consumption never fell to that low a level in the U.S, going back as far as the 19th century, or in the fast-growing Asian tigers during their growth years, according to McKinsey Global Institute. The share of household spending in GDP in the U.S. is
about 70%.
The burden of reform will fall on the men expected to succeed them, Vice President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Li Keqiang.
But don't expect China's new leaders to move quickly. Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan has privately told Western officials that it would take until the fall of 2013 to put together a reform package, said a former U.S. official. 'To complete a smooth
succession, Li and Xi probably have to keep their heads low,' said Fred Hu, chairman of Primavera Capital, a Beijing private-equity firm.
The beneficiaries of change, lower- and middle-income households, have little voice in the policy process. But the costs of failure in slower growth and political instability could be high.
beneficiaries：受益人
'Japan's growth slowed when the economy was already wealthy, and levels of inequality were very low. That provided a baseline of stability for their lost decade,' said Scott Rozelle, an expert on China's economy at Stanford University. 'If China's economy
in the next 20 years follows the same trajectory as the last 10, they could face zero growth as one of the most unequal societies in the world.'
trajectory：軌道，軌跡
美國《華爾街日報》10月19日文章，原題：中國新領導班子的經濟抉擇
中國經濟增長乏力的最新證據凸顯出，即將上任的領導層面臨一個艱難選擇：是在一個已被榨乾的增長模式上繼續加碼，還是冒着較高政治風險賭一把、推進短時間內可能加劇增長放緩的改革？收入差距迅速擴大已成爲中國經濟增長失常的原因之一，要通過解決這個問題，讓消費者的錢包鼓起來，這不是一般的挑戰。
據週四發佈的數據，第三季度中國GDP同比增長7.4%。是2009年年初以來最低的。不過，一些企穩跡象使那些期待中國經濟“軟着陸”的人受到鼓舞，畢竟中國經濟對世界經濟的健康已變得越發重要。9月份工業產值、出口和投資都略有增加，就業狀況也保持強勁。
這爲北京提出一個問題：是採用慣用手段提振經濟？還是通過更加重視國內家庭支出、減少對投資和出口的依賴，使中國進入一條可持續的增長軌道？
要擴大中國經濟增長帶來的福利，就得挑戰某些強大的利益集團：利用徵地獲益的地方官員和以低福利投入爲代價享受低稅率的國有企業。
過去10年中國各階層收入都有增加，但精英階層獲得了不成比例的利益。很久以來大家都在說中國要轉變增長模式、提高對國內消費的依賴，但貧富差距擴大阻礙着這個目標實現。國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家布蘭查德說，要搞大刀闊斧的改革，就得着手進行收入再分配。
對不公平現象的擔憂正在變得越發普遍。解決社會不公的問題需要政府採取的措施包括，保護農民的地權；讓城市外來務工人員擁有城市戶籍；打擊某些精英階層藉以致富的腐敗行爲。這些都需要向強大的既得利益集團發起挑戰。中共第18次代表大會將在11月召開。改革的擔子將落在繼任者身上。
若出現改革，中低收入家庭將是受益者，但這些人在決策過程中幾乎沒發言權。但不改革造成的增長放緩和政治動盪代價將很高。斯坦福大學中國經濟專家羅思高說，若未來20年遵循過去10年同樣的軌跡，中國經濟可能面臨零增長的風險。