劉華：事實證明，假敏捷都比瀑布優秀

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"“"},{"type":"text","text":" 兩個項目的直接對比，充分說明即使是假敏捷都比瀑布優秀。"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"”"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/ec/ec0f7b292d22ddbd2e285bd581f03744.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":1},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"01 假敏捷的“獵狗”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“獵狗”項目始於2019年初，當時公司簽了一個大客戶，並十分激進地計劃在2019年10月份上線。據說，公司和客戶籤的協議還蠻嚴苛的，延期交付是要被客戶被罰款的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這個項目的複雜度很高，其業務模式和在我們系統上運行的現有業務也不一樣。交付風險非常高。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"爲了儘快啓動開發，項目組臨時招聘了大量熟悉該業務的業務人員和開發人員，他們對新業務很熟悉，但對我們的系統和內部業務流程則一無所知。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"項目組也決定完全採用敏捷開發的方式進行管理。每五個星期爲一個迭代。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"之所以迭代週期那麼長，是因爲核心系統是由第三方開發的，又是一個複雜的單體系統，還要顧及現有業務，開發難度大、風險高。原計劃每個迭代預留兩週做開發，兩週做業務驗收測試，一週做迴歸測試。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"公司高層對這個項目非常重視，因爲這是我們最重要的客戶之一。而且，公司一直在推動敏捷轉型，也想把這個項目做成敏捷開發的“模範家庭”，證明如此複雜、依賴第三方開發的項目也可以實現敏捷開發，其他更簡單的項目就別再唧唧哇哇地找藉口不轉型了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"初心是好的，但現實很殘酷。這個項目很快陷入了泥潭。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"前面提到，由於在項目組中，不管是參與的業務人員還是開發人員，都是新聘的，他們對我們的環境完全不熟悉，需求難以落地，缺乏全局視角，很多坑沒有預見。此時不得不臨時抽調我們團隊的“老司機”去救火，但由於大部分人都在忙其他項目，早期能抽調的人手很有限。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由於每個迭代只有兩週的開發時間，第三方覺得時間太緊，並以此爲由，只開發、不測試，代碼交付給我們時其實是“裸奔”的。而且很多時候實際開發時間要三到四周，壓縮了迭代內的測試時間。質量問題嚴重。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由於每個迭代時間都很緊，項目組寄望能通過自動化測試加速測試進程。但是由於第三方開發的系統對我們來說就是個黑盒子，我們沒有代碼，只能進行通過UI做黑盒測試。自動化測試難度大，一直沒有很好的思路，自動化測試框架的開發停滯不前。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這就導致每個迭代開發的東西都沒有進行充分的測試。而且由於整個項目涉及到多個系統，各系統的開發進度也很難同步，集成測試無法在迭代中完成，只能在項目後期進行。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所以，這其實是一個"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"假敏捷"},{"type":"text","text":"的過程，"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"每個迭代只是不斷輸出不能上線的半成品"},{"type":"text","text":"，集成測試集中在後期，也就是"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"把風險累積在上線前"},{"type":"text","text":"。項目也因此不得不延期了幾次。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/5e/5e6bc069f94c9204a1d2f12fc4a79b58.webp","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/7b/7bf0f12d7a3c73dbdefba3a333bdc5a5.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由於大部分的項目組成員不熟悉我們的環境，不斷踩坑，經常把問題上報到項目組高層來解決。項目組高層也經常要四處拉人救火。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最後，這個項目磕磕碰碰，延期了兩次後，在2020年6月份上線，上線後雖然有一些問題，總體上還算是順利上線。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":1},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"02 瀑布的“熱帶雨林”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“熱帶雨林”項目啓動於2017年。和“獵狗”相似，也是爲了一個大型客戶，也和客戶簽署了類似的懲罰協議。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"正因爲這是一個對客戶有承諾的項目，當時項目組高層認爲計劃與承諾非常重要，所以，項目整體上是採用瀑布形式來管理的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由於這個原因，做詳細的計劃和不斷地重新做計劃貫穿着項目的整個過程。我有一段時間直接參與該項目某個模塊的交付，就被這個計劃過程整得死去活來。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"瀑布計劃通常需要根據當時已知的需求和資源做長期的詳細計劃，更要命的是，我需要對這份計劃"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"畫押"},{"type":"text","text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當時幾十頁的需求文檔還沒有消化完，連需求是否完整還不能確定，系統的詳細分析也沒有做完，有很多的不確定性，要我做一份精準的計劃還要畫押，臣妾實在做不到。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而且當時和PM的另一個爭論是，一方面我們做交付都不夠時間和人手，又要花費大量時間和人力來做計劃，到底是交付重要還是計劃重要。很顯然PM也是要向上交差，他當時關心的真的只有計劃。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不是說計劃不重要，但是長期、全盤的計劃只能用來窺探項目全貌，用作確定預算和資源配置，不能當成承諾，也不能作爲執行的唯一依據。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"幸好我後來離開了這趟渾水，否則我可能真的要約PM去爬六峯山了。後來聽繼續參與該項目的小夥伴說，做計劃這事在項目過程中沒完沒了，耗費了大量時間和人力。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"早期由於有足夠預算，項目組當時就圈了一大羣人，但由於需求都還沒有談，而且因爲是瀑布模式，需求沒有全部確定前，後續的工作也開展不了。因此很多人其實是在空耗着，或者實際在做其他項目的事情。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這種要做幾年的項目，人也很難有急迫感，難免有“瞎忙”的情況。而且項目延期了幾次，造成嚴重的超支。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"起了個大早，趕了個晚集。“熱帶雨林”起步比“獵狗”要早得多，現在“獵狗”已經在2020年6月上線了。而“熱帶雨林”折騰了幾年，目前最新的計劃是在2021年1月份上線，現在正在跟客戶進行聯測。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這一測，要命了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"客戶在這個時候提出了很多新需求。而現在離計劃上線的日子已經不多了。其實我們都知道，這"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"哪是什麼新需求，只能說明原來寫的很多需求都不成立"},{"type":"text","text":"。由於項目是以瀑布形式來管理的，現在纔有機會讓客戶驗證那些需求，醜媳婦見公婆的時間太晚了而已。"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"反饋太慢、太晚恰恰就是瀑布的最大硬傷"},{"type":"text","text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雖然“熱帶雨林”的劇情還在發展中，它能否在2021年1月份順利上線還是未知數，現在判斷它的結局爲時尚早，我有被打臉的可能。但目前聯測的情況是真不樂觀，我當然也不介意被打臉，希望它能順順利利。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":1},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"03 兩者對比"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從複雜度、性質來說，“獵狗”和“熱帶雨林”是差不多的，雖然“獵狗”也有超支、延期的情況，但總算在一年半時間內順利上了線。“熱帶雨林”在2017年就啓動了，現在是否能按最新計劃順利上線還很懸，孰優孰劣，一目瞭然。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"那麼對比“獵狗”和“熱帶雨林”，“獵狗”“優秀”在哪裏呢？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"究其原因，有以下幾點值得一提："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":1,"normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雖然每個迭代只有輸出而不是成果，但這個機制保證了每個迭代進行一次短期計劃和覆盤，也保證了持續的優先級梳理，雖然開發出來的還是半成品，但總歸有實際的進度。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"儘管集成測試不能跟隨每個迭代進行，但項目組還是想方設法把集成測試提前。雖然沒有避免延期，但還是更早地暴露了問題。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":3,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"項目高層一直跟項目組成員強調遇到任何問題都可以直接越級上報，高層也做到了及時響應，組織會議四處拉人救火。儘管這個過程很頻繁，令人怨聲載道，但從結果上看，確保了及時滅火。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"反觀“熱帶雨林”，它有以下問題："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":1,"normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雖然經常做計劃，但這種長期計劃需要對項目的細節有完整的理解，太南了；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所有的需求只有到最後聯測纔有機會驗證，太晚了；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":3,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"項目組高層的風格也不一樣，雖然口頭上也是說有什麼問題都可以越級上報，但如果沒有充分準備就上報，會被罵得很慘，所以有些時候，項目組成員多一事不如少一事，問題沒有得到及時的曝光和解決，壓抑了；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":4,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由於缺乏像敏捷這樣的定期、頻繁的會議機制，缺乏及時的迭代計劃、優先級梳理和覆盤，對項目的實際進度也很難把握，霧裏看花。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":1},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"04 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