技術創業九死一生，如何打造“夢幻開局”？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"導讀：在 2020 年 11 月 28 日舉行的全球技術領導力峯會 GTLC 廈門站上，Juicedata 合夥人、TGO 鯤鵬會（廈門）董事會成員蘇銳，從自己的技術創業經歷出發，帶了一場 40 分鐘的主題演講。他對比了 To B 和 To C 創業啓動時的差異，並全面地回顧了過往技術發展中的一些歷史機遇，分析了技術發展帶來過哪些巨大商機。本文爲演講內容的整理。"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/5c\/d0\/5cfb372a780c839a0530642777a7c7d0.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"嘉賓介紹：蘇銳，Juicedata 合夥人、TGO 鯤鵬會（廈門）董事會成員；參與創建國內首個完全架構在公有云上的分佈式文件系統 JuiceFS，服務國內幾十家科技企業，並在運營商、證券、能源、航天、廣電等領域交付數十 PB。蘇銳在互聯網行業工作十五年，曾創立 O2O 汽車服務品牌功夫洗車，曾任豆瓣電影 Tech Lead，豆瓣電影票產品負責人，國內知名社會企業多背一公斤產品技術總監，其負責的產品獲 Prix 奧地利藝術節數字社區金獎。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"大家好，我是 Juicedata 合夥人蘇銳，也是 TGO 鯤鵬會（廈門）董事會成員，今天帶給大家的分享是《B 端 \/ C 端創業啓動：看技術拐點如何影響商機？》，我將談談自己過去五六年的創業經歷，以及自己在看待技術發展時的一些心得體會。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"先介紹一下自己，我在互聯網行業工作了 15 年，2010 年曾在豆瓣電影做技術負責人，後來轉向業務方向，做了豆瓣第一個有交易場景的項目-豆瓣電影票。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2014 創業風潮興起，我自己創業做了功夫洗車，主打的是上門洗車的服務。當時的思考是看到這個市場很大，而且比較落後，認爲這裏存在一些商機。兩年裏做了一些積累，但後來有一些大的對手入局，加上 2015 年股災，O2O 項目拿不到融資，這段創業就暫告一段落。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2017 搬到廈門，開始回到技術領域，和前同事創辦了 Juicedata，做了 JuiceFS，至今幹了 3 年，有了一些新的感悟。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"回看自己的兩段創業，經歷了 To C、To B 的早期一些過程，今天會結合這些過程，講講在兩個賽道創業有什麼不同，然後會聚焦技術創業，分析技術拐點能帶來哪些商機。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"To C\/To B 創業起步的差異對比"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"無論是 To B 還是 To C，最初的起步都是比較關鍵的環節，創業必然會面臨兩座大山的壓力：錢和時間。所以必須要找到 Product-Market Fit（產品市場契合），尋找 PMF 的一個方法是，思考所做的事情是不是由軟件定義。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"比如沃爾瑪、萬科、戴爾、京東、艾森哲、鏈家、餓了麼、法大大，這些企業的共同特點是交付環節依靠人力完成，而不是軟件。這對應我在功夫洗車的創業經歷。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"再看向 C 端，微信、谷歌、FB、今日頭條、快手、美圖等等，它們依賴於軟件，不需要很多人力的交付，所以每個員工的邊際效益非常高。對比兩種模式的差別，會發現團隊裏的人員槓桿率，竟然相差十倍到一百倍甚至更高。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這在我們現在 Juicedata 的創業中也可以體現，因爲技術產品完全通過軟件定義，我們大概做了三年，在文件系統的存儲行業裏，三年是一個開始被人信服的時間。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但不論創業時業務是否由軟件定義，在選擇 PMF 時都有一個衡量標準——增長情況。對 To B 和 To C 項目而言，增長是萬能的尺子，它們的增長模型也十分相似。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/ab\/3f\/aba7506ff51c0391cb4ef9d86c93e23f.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對比 To B 市場和 To C 的銷售漏斗，雖然表象上不太一樣，但本質上都是同樣的過程。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"即便如此，在創業起步的第一個階段，二者卻有着非常大的不同。在 To B 中管理銷售的過程時，一開始就關注和錢相關的指標。這樣的角度決定了很多銷售模式、市場模式，很多量化指標從第一天就開始被重視。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是 To C 創業第一階段需要關注的是流量，產品賺錢不是首要條件，只要能夠保證每天都有新的流量流入，達成留存轉化就可以了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"其次是要觀察你的用戶，因爲用戶是銷售漏斗裏最核心的要素。To B 和 To C 轉化過程背後的用戶，在多個維度上有着相反的特徵。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在做 To B 產品時，企業採購相關業務時決策很慢，因爲需要進行羣體決策，不可以讓某一個人拍板，整個決策過程非常理性，但成本高失敗的代價很大。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"相反的，To C 完全是個人決策，情感因素會佔據主導地位。因爲失敗成本低，而且在 To C 的領域，爲了降低交易成本和決策風險，會使用很多方案讓用戶在判斷過程中更容易上頭，增強和客戶的連接，所以長期對用戶進行運營刺激是有效的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"再接着看團隊在創業第一步的變化，To C 的團隊生存結構就是要快生快死，實驗市場手段必須是產品先行，沒有產品就無法接觸到客戶。在擴展運營中也一定是靠自己的團隊，很難靠上下游的拉動，產生好的模式。在流量模型裏，關鍵環節的轉化率都是自己的產品決定的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/ee\/1f\/eefcf6ce5aeaecc2ac1447d5667d701f.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所以做 To C 的時候，整個產品團隊、運營團隊要不斷創造新鮮感，給客戶帶來新的刺激，技術團隊也要不斷開發，滿足各種各樣的需求。To B 就完全不一樣，產品必須是找到清楚的切入點後，逐漸能夠讓客戶接受你，然後再慢慢打磨，成爲一個真正滿意的產品。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"相比於 To C 必須擁有產品，To B 則沒有這個要求，可以直接用廣告投放，用靜態頁面就可以完成市場的調研。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在拓展層面上 To B 也和 To C 十分不同，To B 解決用戶需求很難依靠獨立部門，往往要和其他的部門配合，甚至還要和行業上下游配合。通常也不會做任何刺激客戶的事情，變化都比較少，需要做的是不斷優化客戶效率。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"說回到技術創業這一塊，不論是 To B 還是 To C，都要先找到 PMF，在技術創業前還有一個必要環節，思考技術應該變成什麼產品，並進行技術到問題的驗證，也就是先找到 Technology-ProblemFit（技術問題契合）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當有了技術，需要明確技術可以解決的問題，比如細化到解決的是存儲安全性問題還是成本問題，亦或者是生態對接的問題。找到明確問題後，還要判斷這個問題能不能形成市場。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一種方式是在早期客戶羣體中，先用技術來驗證問題，分析哪個領域的用戶會青睞這個技術，最終抽象出市場，再按照這個市場把技術逐漸打造成產品。如果技術很牛，但卻找不到市場，就需要慎重考慮這項技術的研發。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對比了 To B\/To C 創業初期的不同，再看看技術帶來的一些機會。我將結合一些科技發展，談談對技術觀點的一些看法，分析都出現過哪些大的拐點。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"技術的發展創造了無數商業拐點"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2000 年互聯網在全球範圍內普及，互聯網的出現帶來了大的質變。此前軟件的交易是通過賣拷貝、磁盤或者光盤，互聯網出現之後，就開始出現了B\/S 架構，逐漸有一些簡單的業務產品遷移到了瀏覽器中。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2006 年寬帶網絡全球普及，瀏覽器從只能看信息變成更及時的交互，這個時候谷歌開始風靡，出現了 Facebook，谷歌地圖等豐富體驗的產品。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Web 2.0 開始向瀏覽器加入更多場景，之後有了大規模分佈式系統的出現，今天開發者面向服務器端的技術，幾乎都是從那時開始。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2008 年智能手機出現，PC 端的一些操作開始遷移到手機端，2014 年 4G 網絡普及和資費下調，全國迅速用上寬帶移動網絡，智能手機帶來了真正的變革。這個過程裏 PC 機出貨量也不斷下降。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這些技術上面的變化，帶來了無數市場機會，如果聚焦在技術創業的領域，會發現其背後的技術發展，不是跳躍進行的而是一個連續過程。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"技術發展的第一個層面是硬件，包括存儲、計算、網絡。硬件發展纔有配套軟件變化，比如操作系統、數據庫、大數據以及各種各樣分佈式系統。只有進行了軟硬件的結合，纔會產生了一些新的變化，比如軟件定義、虛擬化容器，湧現了新的技術創業機會，商業模式也發生了改變。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/91\/bd\/910f066a5c6e36f6ccdfd8bacc35f9bd.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對商業模式的改變，可以先看看硬件的變化過程。ARM 於 1990 年成立，不同於當時形成壟斷的英特爾，ARM 授權每一家公司自己通過 IP 設計芯片，創造了一個新的商業模式，今天 ARM 成爲了整個移動互聯網最基礎的支撐。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"再往後，1997 年 CPU 中第一次出現 MMX（多媒體擴展），計算機開始處理和多媒體相關的計算，視頻能力、遊戲能力，包括多媒體的能力開始被髮掘。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"緊接着到了 2005 年，英特爾發佈了雙核處理器，之後 CPU 越來越多核。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2010 年 RISC-V 的出現也是是重要的轉折點，ARM 提供和售賣專利，並放出設計權利，RISC-V 的開源降低了產業鏈的成本。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在網絡的層面上，2015 年機房10Gb網絡普及，主幹網絡的帶寬大幅提升，對分佈式系統基層架構設計帶來了質的改變。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"然後是存儲方面，1996 年 NetAPP 推出支持多協議的硬件存儲，2006 年 SSD 進入筆記本市場，破除了具有物理極限的磁盤的限制，在存儲上的吞吐能力上有了質的飛躍。從 2006 年到 2013 年磁盤市場達到頂峯，SSD 憑藉經濟性和場景多用逐漸取代市場，同年的 PCIe 的固態硬盤也開始普及，今天企業數據庫沒有跑在磁盤上的，多是跑在 NVME 上。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果沒有硬件的迭代，許多軟件就沒有發展的空間，所以硬件是整個技術發展的根基，之後纔是軟件層面的一些改變。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/21\/c3\/218319dc77efbb386323709975ef89c3.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"先看操作系統的幾個重要階段。1991 年開始，Linux 逐漸壟斷了服務器市場；1977 年甲骨文創立，從剛剛發表的關係型數據庫論文中，抓住了商機，雖然創辦的前四年都沒法運營起來，但還是能拿到政府大單，後來於 1994 年推出了 MySQL ，解決了很多業務場景的難題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"也是從 1994 年開始，陸續出現了可免費使用的開源產品，而之前大部分都是商業軟件。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2006 年寬帶網絡開始普及，Web 2.0 的出現讓許多事情可以在互聯網上進行，之前軟硬件一體化的東西開始跟不上時代，所以出現了大規模分佈式系統，互聯網流量開始爆發式增長。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這些現象開始倒逼技術的發展，從 2005 年開始有密集的產品出現，比如從關係型數據庫舍掉一部分，變成了"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/baike.baidu.com\/item\/mongodb\/60411?fr=aladdin","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" MongoDB"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，到今天又有 TiDB 之類的分佈式數據庫，給了技術人許多創新的機會。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2006 年 Web 2.0 之前沒有大數據，普遍採用並行計算框架，比如科研工作都是用 MPI，到 2006 因爲數據量暴漲，集羣規模不斷增大，需要解決穩定性問題，谷歌做了一些突破性的研究，後來社區有了 Hadoop。現在普遍都開始上雲，又出現了新的機會，比如基礎軟件在雲架構上的變革。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另外，Apache 基金會也爲開源帶來了保障，後來很多項目都是在 Apache 基金會支持下成長起來的，因爲有了大規模分佈式系統的需要，一些技術的出現就順理成章，包括 2014 年出現的 "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/baike.baidu.com\/item\/kubernetes\/22864162?fr=aladdin","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Kubernetes"}]},{"type":"text","text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當然軟件和硬件之間有一些重疊的部分，2004 年 SDN 標準出現，實現了軟件定義網絡。此前的網絡都是用硬件的路由器、交換機插線解決配置的，規模大了以後用軟件實現是必然的選擇。也是有了軟件定義網絡，纔有雲計算髮展的可能。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2007 年出現了專注做網絡虛擬化的 Nicira（後來被 VMware 收購），對基礎設施的建設做了很大貢獻。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在 2006 年裏，亞馬遜發佈了重磅級雲產品 S3，成爲了雲上對象存儲的事實標準。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"隨後是在 2010 年前後，新出的技術產品更加密集了，因爲移動網絡的普及，交互頻次又上升一到兩個量級。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"直到今天的 5G 的發展，IoT 能讓數據量可以再上兩個量級，這幾年機器產生的數據超過了人爲的數據，無論是在線交易數據庫還是離線分析數據庫，在 IoT 場景上能適用的還比較少，這些新場景都是好的創業機會。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"再來看看商業模式的變化，1991  Linux 發佈了內核，讓軟件社區如獲至寶，後面的 Linux 發展很快，圍繞它出現了更加豐富的自由軟件。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/96\/2a\/96352068e9c7a8ab3da4503fe7e8b52a.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1999 年，Redhat 上市帶來了很大的商業價值，它證明了運行開源軟件是可以掙錢的，還能把公司做上市。此後很多產品都開始擁抱開源，走向社區。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2004 年，SalesfoceIPO，它用 SaaS 的方式交付企業最核心的 ERP、CRM 等系統，取代了之前 SAP那種非常高成本的交付方式。Salesfoce 在 1999 年決定要做 SaaS，五年後成功 IPO，這個速度令人歎服。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"公有云的鼻祖 AWS 於 2006 年發佈，隨後的 2007 年安卓發佈，開源生態在走向商業化過程中，還出現了 GitHub 這樣的驚人產品，憑藉託管代碼促進技術人員交流最後賣出了 75 億美金。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"因爲雲的構架商業模式又發生了變化，2012 年出現了"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.oschina.net\/p\/twitter-snowflake?hmsr=aladdin1e1","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" Snowflake"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，它可以進行離線分析，完全架構在公有云上，可以隨便往裏面寫數據，支持彈性伸縮，而且使用門檻低。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"開源的流行對商業界也產生了大的影響。2001 年微軟 CEO 說開源就是癌症，是毒瘤。有趣的是到了 2014 年，微軟的態度來了一個大反轉，當時的微軟 CEO 宣佈微軟熱愛 Linux，並開始全面擁抱開源，還在幾年後收購了 GitHub。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在 2018 年，開源的開山鼻祖 RedHat 也出售了，因爲在早期開源中都是賣技術支持，真正的企業客戶沒有足夠實力的團隊會使用。這在 Redhat IPO 的時候是存在的，但是到2006 年之後，隨着大家更多使用公有云，很多需要的技術支持不再需要了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"再看今天如日中天的開源項目，Kafka、MongoDB 等等，他們不約而同地在 2018 年前後改了Lisence，在更改 Lisence 內容時有一個共同指向，就是禁止公有云薅羊毛。公有云廠商馬上做了反饋，有的雲就遵守新規則，雙方一起分錢，有的就自己造了一個來兼容社區產品。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"其實無論是軟件、硬件的發展，都給我們整個社會的商業模式帶來了一輪又一輪的機會，有一句丘吉爾的話送給大家：歷史能看多遠，未來我們就能看多遠。這對技術創業尤其重要。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"以史爲鑑，技術創業仍然大有可爲"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最後做一下總結，技術創業門檻不高，就算沒有權利、資本、資源，只要有會技術的夥伴就可以開始。另外是要從歷史中找到未來的趨勢，每一次趨勢的變化都會孕育一大批成功產品，其實最簡單的就是以前的東西跟不上了，必須在新的趨勢下做一個新東西進行替代，找到可以參考的標竿，在發展的過程中都可以作爲參照物。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在 To B 和 To C 賽道都體驗過後，發現 To B 一定要客戶解決問題，To C 不一定是解決問題，尤其是在今天競爭越來越激烈，有越來越多大的產品出現，未來更是有無限的機會，當年 BAT 壟斷的時候，很多人覺得沒有機會了，但後來還是出現了美團、字節跳動。所以在 To C 上，也有無限創造的機會。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"分享的最後推薦幾本書給大家，對技術創業會有幫助，都是和技術創業相關的內容，分別是《教堂與集市》《浪潮之巔》《創新者的窘境》《上帝與拉里·埃裏森的不同》《Borland 傳奇》《UNIX 編程藝術》。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我今天的分享就到這裏，謝謝大家！"}]}]}