碎碎念之「創造力可能是新的生產力」

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"「科學技術是第一生產力」這個論斷在我們國家深入人心，也引領和見證了國家從生產力匱乏的年代，走到了生產力豐富的年代。這條路走了幾十年，那麼未來的路呢？","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"國家、社會層面的事情太大，今天想說一些和我們切身相關的事。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"生產力富足改變工作價值","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不管我們是領導一個團隊，還是領導一家公司，在團隊或者公司規模擴張的時候，常見的做法都是，找人來接手我們之前自己手頭上做的某些事情。這樣我們才能專注於對自己來說價值更高的事情，比如產生和衡量產品創意、思考公司的未來。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從某種意義上，人類運用科學技術去提高生產力，也是在做同樣的事，只是在找機器來做。機器與人相比，更精確、更不容易出錯，規模化之後成本更低。隨着科學技術的進步，越來越多的工作已經從人類手裏交給了算法、機器人。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"人類作爲一個羣體，在不斷解放自己的精神和身體精力，從事越來越高級別的工作","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。但這對個體來說，未必是一件好事。我們接受的教育、掌握的技能，如果是按照上一個時代的思路來安排，顯然不符合未來需要。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"靠創造力喫飯，在生產力匱乏的年代是需要勇氣和信仰的。那種辛苦的簡單重複的工作，是社會所需要的，從職業的角度要安全得多。那個年代流行的口號是，學好數理化，走遍天下都不怕。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"隨着科學技術的進步，生產力水平逐步進入了富足階段，人類用技術從鋼鐵和石英中開採出了巨大的生產力。實際上我們國家作爲世界工廠，很長一段時間，是抓住了全世界生產力從匱乏到富足的尾巴，用低廉的人力成本承擔了相對低端的產業鏈環節。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"資本對效率的追求是無情的，當歐美工人不夠便宜的時候，低價值工作就會向人力成本更低的地區流動，亞洲四小龍、中國、越南、印度……。當機器和算法足夠便宜的時候，所有人類遲早都要靠邊站。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"創造力是值得關注的生產力","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不管從世界範圍來看，還是從中國來看，生產力必然是日益豐富的。那麼，我們思考職業規劃還是子女教育，就必須認識到，什麼是未來的稀缺資源。除了科學技術之外，創造力是值得關注的。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"任何事物不再稀缺之後，都會變成容易獲得的標準化資源，生產力也是如此。當人類用科學技術，特別是近年來的人工智能算法，把生產力成本降到足夠低之後。","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"用生產力來幹什麼，就是更有價值的問題了。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我們需要關注諸如下面這類問題：","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何理解人類的情感需求？","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何設計更好的產品？","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何創造性地去解決問題？","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何從眼前的問題裏發現機會？","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何讓一羣人能一起作出好決定？","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"等等","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"人類的終極目標是更幸福，而不只是更富裕。物質上的追求終究是有盡頭的，人類的壽命越來越長，擁有高質量的生活體驗，長壽纔有意義。","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"用創造力帶給人類更豐富的體驗，是值得長期投資的事業","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"某種意義上，創造力是一種更高級的生產力，","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"科學技術讓人類更好地做事，創造力讓人類做更好的事","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"生產力的極度富足，讓創造力的解放成爲可能。","attrs":{}},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/","title":""},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Open AI 的 DALL·E 項目","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"text","text":"，已經可以從一段文本自動設計出圖片了。並不是會畫畫就等同於有創造力。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我們需要認真思考什麼是創造力，我們自己和孩子們應該如何培養。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"未來已來，本文未完待續。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}