阿里雲有機會趕超亞馬遜和微軟嗎？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雲計算市場的 3A 格局由來已久，每個人都在期待——誰是下一朵“破局之雲”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"4 月 21 日消息，國際研究機構 Gartner 發佈 2020 年全球雲計算 IaaS 市場追蹤數據，阿里雲排名全球第三、亞太第一，市場份額連續五年上漲，從 2016 年的 3.7%上漲至 2020 年的 9.5%，超過谷歌的 6.1%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/34\/34d2f3525dee4fe2a76a8cf4e2a6a548.webp","alt":"圖片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"過去五年中，阿里雲在全球市場上份額穩步增長，並於 2018 年超過谷歌成爲第三名，與亞馬遜、微軟形成穩定的“雲計算 3A 格局”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/aa\/aaff34bef1feb0c4ac67bc8fea31b3e9.webp","alt":"圖片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我不禁開始好奇，阿里雲能否再進一步，從增速是全球增速 1.5 倍的中國雲計算市場脫穎而出，找到 3A 格局重新洗牌的“力眼”？"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"GDP 18.3% 增長背後的機會"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"4 月 16 日，國家統計局公佈了今年一季度經濟數據 —— 一季度 GDP 同比增長 18.3%，這是 1992 年有季度 GDP 統計數據以來的最高值。這個令人咋舌的數據背後，體現的是特殊時期中國經濟的強大韌性。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"歷史機遇總是在不經意間到來，新冠疫情給世界按下了暫停鍵，卻給適應了“疫情新常態”的中國數字化轉型浪潮按下了加速鍵。以工業製造業爲例，包括新能源汽車、工業機器人、挖掘\/剷土運輸機械、微型計算機設備、集成電路在內的高新技術同比增速均超過了 60%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一方面是中國經濟的迅速反彈，另一方面是中國雲計算市場的高速成長。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據報告數據，2020 年中國公有云 IaaS 市場規模達 156 億美元，同比增長 62.3%，是全球規模最大、增速最快的雲計算市場之一。有分析師表示，中國雲計算市場正處於高景氣週期，且技術、生態與能力基礎可比肩全球頂級水平，將持續保持高於平均值的高增長速度。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從行業維度看，在金融、公共服務、零售、教育等重點行業，亞馬遜、微軟和阿里雲均位居全球前三。其中，受益於中國在線教育市場的發展，阿里雲在教育行業排名全球第一，超過亞馬遜和微軟，市場份額達 24.3%。此外，在零售領域，阿里雲份額也與微軟基本持平。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不同於歐美市場完備的產業鏈上下游生態、成熟的市場體系和廣闊的市場空間，中國雲計算市場自有其特殊性。中國企業的 IT 化和雲化基本上屬於同時進行，在 IT 基礎設施方面的建設起步晚、底子薄。進入全面雲計算時代以後，中國企業的數字化轉型意願空前強烈，一方面需要通過 IaaS 降低 IT 基礎架構的成本，另一方面也需要擁有更簡單的應用開發、部署方式以滿足快速迭代、複雜度高的業務場景。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不管是表象上的傳統企業數字化轉型，還是核心的國家數字化經濟建設，亦或是新基建、產業互聯網的概念，背後都少不了已經成爲水和電的雲計算。也正是這樣的特殊性，造就了快速增長的中國雲計算市場，也引發了對雲廠商服務形態的更高要求。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一種全新的雲計算形態"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"縱觀當今全球雲計算市場，構建 IaaS 層之上的全新雲計算形態，已經成爲幾家領軍雲廠商的整體趨勢。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"微軟在雲戰略上打出 Azure+Office365 戰略，結合 IaaS 和 SaaS，將 Office 的企業客戶優勢引入雲計算服務。這一戰略得到資本市場高度認可，在雲戰略實施後，微軟兩年內市值翻倍，已高達 1.5 萬億美元。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"谷歌雲也將雲與辦公軟件相結合，前者爲 GCP，後者爲 G Suite，包括 Gmail 和 Google Docs 服務。這一模式同樣得到市場認可，如前文所述，在資本市場上獲得近 14 倍市售率估值。"}]}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“雲+辦公軟件”，這是微軟、谷歌的模式，而在向來別出機杼的中國市場，阿里雲提出了一個更進一步的新模式——“雲+新型操作系統”模式。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"時間撥回 2020 年 9 月，阿里雲宣佈進入 2.0 時代，爲飛天雲計算平臺裝上數字原生操作系統，讓人類和雲計算的交互更加容易，讓雲能夠普及到更多企業、更多人。如果說過去的雲像在計算機上安一個 DOS 系統，那今天的雲可能就像在計算機上用 Windows 一樣簡單。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在這個充滿特殊性的中國雲計算市場，Simple is the best。這樣的模式，可以最大程度地激發中小企業的數字化轉型意願、加速數字化轉型進程。另一方面，對於構建雲生態同樣大有裨益：從底層技術能力的滿足到頂層應用開發的低門檻，可以提升企業用戶粘性，帶來更豐富的企業用戶資源，降低成本，並提升產品的豐富性和服務能力，是一個雲與操作系統的綜合作用，而並非簡單的 IaaS 與 PaaS、或 SaaS 產品的直接相加。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對於那些沒有或者缺乏技術能力的中小微企業，在雲釘一體的模式下，用他們用“拖拉拽”的方式就能建立自己的企業應用，加快了創新的速度，讓企業自己擁有數字化轉型的主動權。這恰好暗合疫情新常態下的數字經濟發展國情。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"買別人？自己造！"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"聯合國總部有一個名爲“鑄劍爲犁”的雕塑，其蘊含着祈願世界和平，放下武器，發展生產，人民和平、幸福、平安的美好願望。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/d6\/d6783d7bc0540ff03d80408ab7ba9abf.png","alt":"圖片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但和平並不意味着放棄“刀兵”，“真理”纔是守護和平的唯一利器。21 實際的世界格局，競爭空前激烈，掌握屬於自己的“屠龍之術”纔是保持發展的不二法門。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"縱觀全球雲計算格局，市場份額總和超過 75%的亞馬遜、微軟、阿里雲、谷歌無不是從底層就做了自主研發的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從這個角度看，買別人還是自己造的答案不言而喻。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"去年我受邀參加了阿里雲線上峯會，第一次看到了阿里雲的“自研全景圖”：全國唯一的自研雲操作系統飛天；自研的神龍雲服務器架構；自研分佈式存儲系統盤古、自研雲原生數據庫 PolarDB、自研含光 800AI 芯片……"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/0e\/0ecd425e59b9f7405957943c6e1fab92.png","alt":"圖片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"基本做到了軟硬一體"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"全球 IT 圈已經形成了一個共識：規模龐大的中國互聯網已經變成了一個歷練技術的沙箱，用於創建和測試各種新的解決方案，而這個規模是其他經濟體幾乎無法複製的。Kubernetes、Apache Kylin、Dubbo、TiDB，這些技術紮根於中國互聯網的土壤，迅速成熟。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在中國互聯網土壤裏生長出的開源軟件，又反哺給了世界開源社區，建立起信任和良性循環。Linux 基金會、CNCF 基金會、Apache 基金會，都有越來越多來自中國科技公司、中國雲廠商甚至中國個人開發者的貢獻身影，這就是最好的證據。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一手自研，一手開源，兩手都抓，兩手都硬。"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最後讓我們回到文章標題提出的問題，阿里雲有機會趕超亞馬遜和微軟嗎？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Why not？讓時間說真話。"}]}]}